ATLANTA, Sept. 27, 2021 /PRNewswire/ — September U.S. auto gross sales are forecast to be considerably hampered by an ongoing lack of new-vehicle stock. In response to a forecast launched immediately by Cox Automotive, the tempo of auto gross sales, or seasonally adjusted annual charge (SAAR), is anticipated to complete close to 12.1 million, the slowest tempo since Could 2020, when a lot of the nation was closed throughout the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. The September 2021 gross sales tempo might be down from August’s 13.1 million tempo and down from the September 2020 tempo of 16.3 million.

Gross sales quantity is forecast by Cox Automotive to return in close to a notably low 1.0 million items. The low quantity expectations for September 2021 put the month on track to be among the many worst previously decade. Gross sales quantity is anticipated to be down almost 26% from final September and down 8.5% from final month.

The gross sales tempo within the U.S. market has fallen each month since reaching a peak of 18.3 million in April. In response to Cox Automotive Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough: “After a robust spring promoting season, the availability state of affairs has worsened precipitously and is dragging gross sales down with it. The month-to-month declines have been giant – the gross sales tempo has declined by greater than 1,000,000 items in every of the previous 5 months. Obtainable provide on seller heaps is now 58% decrease than final September, down almost 1.4 million items.”

The brand new-vehicle provide scarcity is impacting the market in some ways. Producers have reduce considerably on incentives, and transaction costs have risen in consequence. As well as, the dearth of new-vehicle stock is steering many sellers and shoppers into the used-vehicle market, leading to greater costs for each wholesale and retail used autos.

Q3 2021: The Auto Business Finds the Backside

With decrease gross sales forecast for September, the third quarter of 2021 is forecast to complete with auto gross sales down 14% versus Q3 2020 and down 22% in comparison with the identical interval in 2019. Cox Automotive will formally revise its full-year forecast, with new projections scheduled to be launched on September 30.

The underlying financial circumstances within the U.S. are at the moment wholesome sufficient to help greater new-vehicle gross sales ranges. The demand is there. Stock ranges, nevertheless, are the distinctive drawback dealing with the automotive market proper now, with disruptions to the worldwide provide chain difficult all automakers, severely impacting accessible stock, and pushing many would-be consumers out of the market. In latest analysis by Cox Automotive’s Kelley Blue E-book workforce, almost half of would-be consumers indicated in August that they are going to probably step again from the market, many for 3 months or extra. 

Stock circumstances, nevertheless, are anticipated to enhance within the coming months. “The expectation is that OEM provide points will enhance such that This autumn ought to have higher promoting SAARs than the September charge, however that does not imply good promoting charges,” stated Chesbrough. “Automobiles are getting produced, and a few OEMs have improved their provide state of affairs. In latest months, OEMs appear to be managing the state of affairs higher now that they’ve had time to regulate. For instance, automakers are enhancing their capability to redirect current chips to crucial autos of their portfolios. This technique ought to help higher gross sales within the fourth quarter in comparison with the third quarter.”

September 2021 Gross sales Forecast Highlights

  • New light-vehicle gross sales are forecast to fall to 1.0 million items, or down 357,000 items, almost 26% from final yr. In comparison with final month, gross sales are anticipated to fall 92,000 or almost 8%.
  • The SAAR in September 2021 is estimated to be 12.1 million, down from final September’s early COVID restoration tempo of 16.3 million and down from August’s 13.1 million supply-constrained stage.
  • No section noticed a gross sales improve in September with the Mid-Dimension Automobiles and Compact SUV/Crossover segments seeing the biggest year-over-year decreases at -41.0% and -33.7%, respectively.

September 2021 New-Automobile Gross sales Forecast

Gross sales Forecast1

Market Share

Section

Sep-21



Sep-20

Aug-21

YOY%

MOM%

Sep-21



Aug-21

MOM

Mid-Dimension Automotive

60,000

101,705



66,165

-41.0%

-9.3%

6.0%

6.1%



-0.1%

Compact Automotive

80,000

89,114

89,128



-10.2%

-10.2%

8.0%

8.2%

-0.2%



Compact SUV/Crossover

150,000

226,326

165,972

-33.7%



-9.6%

15.0%

15.2%

-0.2%

Full-Dimension Pickup Truck



155,000

216,154

162,970

-28.3%

-4.9%



15.5%

14.9%

0.6%

Mid-Dimension SUV/Crossover

170,000



229,862

190,104

-26.0%

-10.6%

17.0%



17.4%

-0.4%

Grand Whole2

1,000,000

1,357,020



1,092,302

-26.3%

-8.5%

Cox Automotive Business Insights knowledge 

2 Whole contains segments not proven  



All percentages are primarily based on uncooked quantity, not day by day promoting charge.

Q3 2021 Gross sales and Yr-to-Date Forecast

Q3 2021

Versus
2019

Versus
2020



YTD 2021

Versus
2019

Versus
2020

YTD 2021

Share



% Change

Versus 2020

Toyota

586,822

-6.40%



5.10%

1,878,701

5.60%

29.40%

16.00%



1.50%

GM

471,098

-36.00%

-28.90%



1,794,200

-16.40%

1.50%

15.30%

-2.10%



Stellantis

392,568

-30.50%

-22.60%

1,347,531



-18.90%

2.00%

11.50%

-1.00%

Hyundai/Kia



367,875

9.30%

8.30%

1,172,819

19.10%



32.80%

10.00%

1.60%

Honda

355,424



-17.20%

-8.50%

1,188,934

-1.40%

21.20%



10.10%

0.90%

Ford

344,147

-40.30%



-37.30%

1,334,118

-26.20%

-10.80%

11.40%



-2.60%

Nissan

208,239

-36.40%

-5.80%



791,940

-24.20%

20.70%

6.80%

0.60%



Subaru

141,344

-23.90%

-16.60%

462,594



-11.90%

6.00%

3.90%

-0.30%

VW



138,474

-16.30%

-7.60%

508,016

5.50%



28.50%

4.30%

0.40%

Mazda

85,236



22.40%

14.50%

274,403

31.80%

35.00%



2.30%

0.40%

BMW

79,774

-7.40%



1.40%

263,393

1.20%

32.00%

2.20%



0.10%

Q3 2021

Versus
2019

Versus
2020

YTD 2021



Versus
2019

Versus
2020

YTD 2021

Share

% Change



Versus 2020

Tesla

70,091

28.10%

25.80%



215,621

55.60%

56.90%

1.80%

0.40%



Daimler

64,392

-28.30%

-24.40%

246,750



-2.70%

7.00%

2.10%

-0.10%

Volvo



32,021

17.90%

5.50%

96,041

24.30%



30.50%

0.80%

0.10%

Mitsubishi

22,536



-7.90%

-9.30%

75,913

-20.60%

4.50%



0.60%

0.00%

Tata

17,682

-33.70%



-22.40%

73,897

-17.00%

10.20%

0.60%



0.00%

Nation

3,377,722

-21.90%

-13.80%



11,724,870

-8.10%

13.00%

100.00%

0.00%



Cox Automotive Q3 U.S. Auto Gross sales Forecast Name
Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke and the Business Insights workforce will share their tackle the general business efficiency on Thursday, September 30, at 10 a.m. EDT. Along with the financial elements influencing the market, the Business Insights workforce will cowl the business’s hottest matters, together with stock, car costs, and valuations. The revised Cox Automotive full-year forecast might be defined, together with insights into the outlook for the rest of the yr. Register to attend.

About Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive Inc. makes shopping for, promoting, proudly owning and utilizing autos simpler for everybody. The worldwide firm’s greater than 27,000 workforce members and household of manufacturers, together with Autotrader®, Supplier.com®, Dealertrack®, Dickinson Fleet Providers, Kelley Blue E-book®, Manheim®, NextGear Capital®, VinSolutions®, vAuto® and Xtime®, are keen about serving to hundreds of thousands of automobile customers, 40,000 auto seller shoppers throughout 5 continents and plenty of others all through the automotive business thrive for generations to return. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately-owned, Atlanta-based firm with annual revenues of almost $20 billion. www.coxautoinc.com

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SOURCE Cox Automotive