Battery-electric vehicles were a bright spot amid the coronavirus crisis in 2020, with global sales up 27 percent in an overall market that fell 14 percent, Kelly said. Sales of EVs in Europe “exceeded expectations,” he said, surging by 105 percent, and were up by 13 percent in China.
Independent analyst Matthias Schmidt said there were 727,000 full-electric vehicles sold in western Europe in 2020, double the number from 2019.
LMC said that automakers expected to gain significant EV market share by 2025 included Daimler, from about 2.5 percent in 2020 to 5 percent; Toyota, from about 1 percent to 5 percent; Ford, from nearly zero to 4 percent; and GM, from about 2 percent to nearly 5 percent.
The Renault Nissan Mitsubishi alliance, an EV pioneer with the Renault Zoe and Nissan Leaf, is expected to retain its 8 percent market share, as will Hyundai Motor Group (the Hyundai and Kia brands), which has about 7 percent of the EV market, LMC said.
Chinese automakers, including SAIC (which makes the MG brand sold in Europe) and BYD, are expected to lose significant share, as EV sales increase in North America and Europe.
Kelly said LMC was expecting EV adoption rates to increase faster than earlier predictions, for several reasons: Tesla’s success and soaring market capitalization; new policies from the EU and the Biden administration in the U.S. to encourage EVs; and improvements in batteries as well as charging infrastructure.
And the number of EV models available for sale globally will go from about 140 in 2020 to nearly 450 in 2025, LMC said. That will contribute to a growth curve from 2.1 percent market share in 2020, to 3.4 percent this year (a 59 percent increase), to 6.5 percent in 2023.